# The Portillo moment **Opening (not a real abstract):** This week: which senior Tories are probably about to lose their seats? Also some gaffes, a map and a chart; and, away from the election, some notes on the axolotl. I keep changing my mind. As recently as Sunday, I was absolutely con‐ vinced that former YouGov boss Peter Kellner’s prediction that the Tories would land on 155 seats – their all-time worst result, sure, but only one seat below 1906 – was madness. Most polls have put them nowhere near that. For weeks, my heart has said they’d be below 100, with all sorts of exciting side effects (total meltdown on the right, massive majority for/unearned complacency in Labour, a surprisingly large number of LibDems); my head, meanwhile, kept telling me 100-120 felt more realis‐ tic. As the campaign has gone on, though, heart and head have come into